Bug Out

Germany’s stunning goal against Sweden was a blow to Mexico as there is now a scenario that could knock them out of the World Cup

Germany celebratesAlexander Hassenstein/Getty Images

Germany breathed life into their 2018 World Cup campaign with a stoppage-time stunner from Toni Kroos to keep the team’s hope of repeating as champions alive.

With Germany’s win, Group F has fallen into chaos, with all four teams still alive heading into the final matchday of the group stage. Despite Mexico being the only undefeated remaining in the group, El Tri still has not yet punched its ticket yet to the knockout round.

Meanwhile, even South Korea, who have yet to steal a single point in the group, still isn’t technically eliminated from the tournament. With just two matches remaining, the scenarios within Group F are still quite confounding — we did our best to break them down for you below.

Here is how each of the teams can advance to the knockout round:

Chances of advancing based on FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings.

Germany
Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images

Chances to advance: 87%

Scenarios to advance:

Germany advances if they beat South Korea and …

Mexico defeats or draws with Sweden, or
Sweden beats Mexico, and Germany beats either Mexico or Sweden in a 3-way tiebreaker (goal differential, goals scored, discipline). Mexico currently holds a 2-goal advantage on goal differential, and Germany and Sweden are tied on goal differential and goals scored.

Germany advances if they draw with South Korea and

Mexico defeats Sweden, or
Sweden draws with Mexico, and Germany beats Sweden in a tiebreaker (goal differential, goals scored, discipline). Mexico currently holds a 2-goal advantage on goal differential, and Germany and Sweden are tied on goal differential and goals scored.

If Germany loses to South Korea, there’s still a chance for them to advance, as long as Mexico beats Sweden and Germany is ahead of South Korea and Sweden on tiebreakers.

The nightmare scenario (the most likely way to not advance): If Germany loses or draws with South Korea, they are out if Sweden beats Mexico.

One thing to know: Thanks to an easier opponent to finish off the group stage, Germany actually has a more favorable chance at advancing through to the elimination round than Mexico does. Toni Kroos’ late game-winner was likely the most valuable goal of the tournament thus far.

Mexico
Clive Mason/Getty Images

Chances to advance: 72%

Scenarios to advance:

Mexico will advance with a win or draw against Sweden or a Germany loss or draw with South Korea.
If Sweden beats Mexico by one goal, Mexico can still advance if Germany beats South Korea, and Mexico beats either Germany or Sweden on tiebreakers (goal differential, goals scored, discipline). Mexico currently holds a 2-goal advantage on goal differential.
If Sweden beats Mexico by more than one goal, Mexico can still advance if South Korea beats or draws with Germany.

The nightmare scenario (the most likely way to not advance): If Mexico loses to Sweden by two or more goals, they are out if Germany beats South Korea.

One thing to know: Mexico may not have the best odds in the group, but the team is still a heavy favorite to move forward, and are the only team in the that can win the group without help from elsewhere in the table. Should Mexico win or tie on Wednesday, the team will win the group and be one step closer to breaking a curse that has haunted El Tri in the knockout round for more than 30 years.

Sweden
Clive Brunskill/Getty Images

Chances to advance: 40%

Scenarios to advance:

Sweden advances with a win over Mexico if …

South Korea beats or draws with German, or
They beat Mexico by two goals or more, or
They beat Mexico by one goal and Germany wins by one goal and Sweden beats Germany or Mexico on tiebreaker (goals scored or discipline).

If Sweden draws with Mexico, they can advance if …

South Korea beats Germany, or
Germany draws with South Korea, and Sweden wins the tie-breaker over Germany (goals scored, discipline). They are currently tied on goal differential and goals scored.

If Sweden loses to Mexico, they can still advance if South Korea beats Germany and Sweden is ahead of South Korea and Germany on tiebreakers.

The nightmare scenario (the most likely way to not advance): If Sweden loses to Mexico, they are out if Germany beats or draws with South Korea.

One thing to know: Sweden’s scenarios are the most complicated of the bunch, but it’s likely too much for the squad to think about on the pitch. The best thing the team can do is beat Mexico and then just hope for the best.

See the rest of the story at Business Insider

See Also:

Here’s how the ‘unlimited’ plans from Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile compareThe DOJ has turned over additional FISA records to Republicans, and former intelligence officials say the implications could be ‘catastrophic’The taxi driver who drove into a crowd of football fans in Moscow says he feared a mob lynching

SEE ALSO: The best photo from every match of the 2018 World Cup


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